Inferring the residual waiting time for binary stationary time series

نویسندگان

  • Gusztáv Morvai
  • Benjamin Weiss
چکیده

For a binary stationary time series define σn to be the number of consecutive ones up to the first zero encountered after time n, and consider the problem of estimating the conditional distribution and conditional expectation of σn after one has observed the first n outputs. We present a sequence of stopping times and universal estimators for these quantities which are pointwise consistent for all ergodic binary stationary processes. In case the process is a renewal process with zero the renewal state the stopping times along which we estimate have density one.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

A new adaptive exponential smoothing method for non-stationary time series with level shifts

Simple exponential smoothing (SES) methods are the most commonly used methods in forecasting and time series analysis. However, they are generally insensitive to non-stationary structural events such as level shifts, ramp shifts, and spikes or impulses. Similar to that of outliers in stationary time series, these non-stationary events will lead to increased level of errors in the forecasting pr...

متن کامل

Some New Methods for Prediction of Time Series by Wavelets

Extended Abstract. Forecasting is one of the most important purposes of time series analysis. For many years, classical methods were used for this aim. But these methods do not give good performance results for real time series due to non-linearity and non-stationarity of these data sets. On one hand, most of real world time series data display a time-varying second order structure. On th...

متن کامل

مکان یابی وفقی موبایل به روش آزمون باقی‌مانده

Determination of mobile localization with time of arrival (TOA) signal is a requirement in cellular mobile communication. In some of the previous methods, localization with non-line-of-sight (NLOS) paths can lead to large position error. Also for simplicity, in most simulations suppose non stationary actual environments as stationary. This paper proposes (residual test + recursive least square)...

متن کامل

Residual analysis using Fourier series transform in Fuzzy time series model

In this paper, we propose a new residual analysis method using Fourier series transform into fuzzy time series model for improving the forecasting performance. This hybrid model takes advantage of the high predictable power of fuzzy time series model and Fourier series transform to fit the estimated residuals into frequency spectra, select the low-frequency terms, filter out high-frequency term...

متن کامل

Inferring the conditional mean

Suppose the distribution of the real-valued stationary time series {Xn}n=0 is not known a priori. The goal is to estimate the conditional expectation E(Xn+1|X0, . . . , Xn) from the data segment X0, . . . , Xn such that the difference between the estimate and the conditional expectation should tend to zero almost surely as the number of observations n tends to infinity. This problem (for binary...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Kybernetika

دوره 50  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2014